Editor's Note: The Interest Rate Update appears weekly on this blog - check back every Monday morning for analysis that is always ahead of the pack.
The latest Canadian employment report sure got the market’s attention last Friday.
It showed that our economy added a whopping 40,600 new jobs last month, which was well above the 10,000 new jobs that the consensus had been expecting. The five-year Government of Canada (GoC) bond yield, which our five-year fixed mortgage rates are priced on, shot up nearly 10 percent after the report was released.
While there were some encouraging developments in our March employment report, the underlying data are notoriously volatile and are regularly revised in subsequent months. David Parkinson at the Globe and Mail noted Stats Can’s claim that its initial March estimate is deemed accurate to within 29,800 jobs two-thirds of the time. In particular, the 18,900 rise in net new jobs in Alberta last month seems ripe for revision, to the point where I am wondering whether someone added instead of subtracted when tallying that province’s result.
Here are the highlights from our latest report:
- The Canadian economy added 40,600 new jobs in March, but this is after we lost 5,700 jobs in January and 2,300 jobs in February. Looking at the first quarter as a whole, we averaged a little more than 10,000 jobs/month, which is almost bang on our six- and twelve-month averages.