Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances
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Well, that was unexpected.
Last Friday, voters in the United Kingdom surprised markets when a small majority voted in favour of leaving the European Union (EU). While the polls showed a tight race between the Leave and Remain sides, markets were giving about 70% odds to the Remain side pulling through. History has shown that on votes like this, with Scotland’s referendum on independence the most recent example, momentum tends to swing in favour of the status quo at the last minute when voters stand in the voting booth and face their moment of truth. While the Remain side did appear to gain some last-minute momentum, this time, it was too little, too late.
Here are five key observations relating to the Brexit, followed by my take on what last Friday’s vote result will mean for our mortgage rates:
In answer to the first question on almost everyone’s mind, I don’t believe that the Brexit-related volatility will lead to a repeat of anything like the 2008 financial crisis. The systemic shock from the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008 was magnified in part because it was a completely unforeseen event that caught markets off guard. While Friday’s outcome was unexpected, everyone had time to see the Brexit vote coming and to think about its possible impacts. And thanks in part to the lessons learned from 2008, the global financial system was better prepared this time around. (For example, corporate banks are better capitalized and central banks have more robust liquidity backstops in place.) This is why Friday’s initial market reactions gyrated within the bounds of what would be considered normal volatility.
Here is a quick summary of how I think the initial Brexit impact will affect our mortgage rates in the near future:
Fixed-Rate Mortgages
I don’t think last Friday’s vote will have much short-term impact on today’s fixed rates. When events like this happen, there is typically a flight-to-safety where investors pile in to safe-haven assets like Government of Canada (GoC) bonds, which our fixed mortgage rates are priced on. But when the dust settled on Friday afternoon, the five-year GoC bond yield was only up four basis points for the week, which is hardly noteworthy, and while the vote result was a surprise to markets, the ensuing volatility it created was largely contained (unless you happen to own a lot of British pounds).
Even if GoC bond yields were to fall precipitously going forward, it is unlikely that our lenders will respond with any immediate rate cuts. Using the 2008 financial crisis as an example, when GoC bond yields plummeted, our lenders held rates steady, citing their reluctance to respond to heightened volatility with knee-jerk reactions (and enjoying fatter short-term profit margins as a reward for their prudence).
Variable-Rate Mortgages
I think the Brexit result pushes out the timing of when the U.S. Federal Reserve will next raise its policy rate. Fed Chair Yellen had already cited “uncertainty” as a central theme in the Fed’s current global economic view, and I don’t see the Fed contemplating rate hikes now, at least until the Brexit’s impacts are more clearly understood.
(Reminder: Canadian variable-rate borrowers should pay attention to what the Fed says because the U.S. and Canadian economies are deeply linked and Canadian monetary policy tends to move in the same direction as U.S. monetary policy over the longer term. Over the near term, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Poloz has made it clear that the BoC expects to lag the Fed’s timing for raises during the current cycle, so in the current context, the Fed’s evolving economic view gives us a kind of distant-early-warning signal for the timing of the BoC’s next rate hike - distant as that prospect still seems.)
Five-year GoC bond yields rose four basis points last week, closing at 0.63% on Friday. Five-year fixed-rate mortgages are available in the 2.39% to 2.49% range, depending on the terms and conditions that are important to you, and five-year fixed-rate pre-approvals are offered at around 2.54%.
Five-year variable-rate mortgages are available in the prime minus 0.40% to prime minus 0.50% range, which translates into rates of 2.20% to 2.30% using today’s prime rate of 2.70%.
The Bottom Line: The UK’s decision to leave the EU should not have a significant short-term impact on Canadian mortgage rates. Over the longer term, while the Brexit heightens global financial risks and raises the potential for increased volatility in financial markets, any related flare ups should trigger a capital flight to safety that would be expected to put downward pressure on our bond yields and therefore our mortgage rates. Nonetheless, we should resist the urge to celebrate because the same Brexit-related volatility that helps keep a lid on our future borrowing costs might also weaken the incomes we need to pay them. Stay tuned.
David Larock is an independent mortgage planner and industry insider specializing in helping clients purchase, refinance or renew their mortgages. David's posts appear weekly on this blog, Move Smartly, and on his own blog: integratedmortgageplanners.com/blog Email Dave