US economic data continue to hold up, despite the ongoing uncertainty about tariff impacts and US President Trump’s next moves.

Quick Summary: The US economy added more jobs than expected in June. That job strength will bolster US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s plan to be patient with more rate...

Quick Summary: Last week Statistics Canada confirmed that our key measures of core inflation cooled a little in May and our GDP decreased by 0.1% in April (month-over-month)....

My Monday Morning Mortgage Rate Updates will be offered in a revised format going forward. 

When I offer a view on where mortgage rates may be headed, it is only after carefully weighing the question: What if I’m wrong?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its policy rate steady last week as the consensus expected it would.

Last week the US Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged for the third time in a row, and we learned that the Canadian economy shed jobs in April.

The recent movements in Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields and, by association, our fixed mortgage rates, have been primarily determined by US President Donald Trump’s erratic...

Last week was mercifully quiet for news affecting Canadian mortgage rates.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its policy rate at 2.75% last week, which it considers to be the mid-point of its neutral range (the level where it is neither stimulating demand nor...

Bond-market investors do not expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut its policy rate when it meets this Wednesday. They are pricing in 60% odds that the Bank stands pat.

Last Wednesday US President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from nearly every country on the planet. Even Heard Island, located off the coast of Australia and occupied...

Last week Statistics Canada released our latest GDP data. The results were better than expected, for the second month in a row, mostly because buyers were front running US...

 Last week the US Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged, as expected

The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its policy rate by another 0.25% last week, as expected. Variable-rate mortgageborrowers will see their rates drop by the same amount in short order. 

 Last week, Statistics Canada confirmed that our employment growth slowed in February.

Last week Statistics Canada provided a final look at how our economy was evolving in the pre-Trump era. 

The Bank of Canada (BoC) won’t be feeling much Valentine’s Day love for our most recent inflation data, released by Statistics Canada last week. 

US inflation increased again in January, for the fourth consecutive month.

It’s hard to believe it has only been a week since President Trump announced he was slapping 25% tariffs on Canadian imports. Chaos has a way of slowing down time.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its policy rate by another 0.25% last Wednesday. Variable-rate mortgage rates decreased by the same amount shortly thereafter.

Last week, Statistics Canada released our latest inflation data, for December, and the results came in basically as expected.

Last week contained noteworthy developments for anyone keeping an eye on mortgage rates.

Last Friday we received the latest US and Canadian employment reports, for December, and both headline prints came in higher than expected.

Happy New Year and welcome back.

I would like to wish my readers a healthy and happy holiday season.

Last Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its policy rate by another 0.50%, as expected. That means our variable mortgage rates will be reduced by the same amount in short...

Last Friday brought some surprising holiday cheer for anyone keeping an eye on Canadian mortgage rates.

Last Friday Statistics Canada confirmed that our GDP increased by only 1% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in Q3, down from 2.2% in Q2.

Last week Statistics Canada confirmed that our Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 2.0% in October, above the consensus forecast of 1.9%.

Will fixed mortgage rates keep falling?

Last week was packed with news worth noting for Canadians keeping an eye on mortgage rates.

Canadian mortgage borrowers have benefitted from some helpful tailwinds of late.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its policy rate by 0.50% last Wednesday, from 4.25% to 3.75%.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) needs to sharply reduce its policy rate, and fast.

Recapping the latest mortgage news over the past few weeks

Last week provided a reminder of why bond yields and mortgage rates are so difficult to forecast.

Last week the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), our banking regulator, announced that it will no longer require any renewing mortgage borrowers to...

Latest happenings in Canada and the U.S. made for a big week in Canadian mortgage news.

The US Federal Reserve meets this week, and the market unanimously expects that it will reduce its policy rate for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

Last week the Bank of Canada (BoC) dropped its policy rate from 4.50% to 4.25%, as expected.

The Bank of Canada probably won’t cut by 0.50% this Wednesday, but I think they will wish they had when all is said and done.

Last week saw encouraging developments on both sides of the 49^th parallel for anyone hoping that Canadian mortgage rates will continue to drop.

The latest US economic data have US bond-market investors paring back their bets on a 0.50% rate cut by the US Federal Reserve at its next meeting on September 18.

We lost 2,800 jobs on a net basis last month, following a net loss of 1,400 jobs in June. The latest result was well below the consensus forecast of +25,000.

Bond yields plunged last week as investors repositioned themselves for a US led global economic slowdown.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its policy rate by another 0.25% last Wednesday, lowering it to 4.5%.

Today’s post explains why I think the Bank of Canada will cut this week, and several more times in short order.

Last week we learned that US inflation cooled in June. That was welcome news for anyone keeping an eye on Canadian mortgage rates.

The market’s initial reaction to new economic data is worth noting, but if you’re trying to predict where mortgage rates are headed, it is also important to keep an eye on longer...

Move Smartly mortgage expert David Larock explains what Canadian mortgage holders need to know each week.

It doesn’t take long for anyone keeping an eye on Canadian mortgage rates to see the impact on them from US economic developments.

The US Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady last week, as expected.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its policy rate from 5.00% to 4.75% last week, marking its first cut since it slashed its policy rate by 1.50% in March 2020 during the early...

The Bank of Canada (BoC) meets this Wednesday, and bond-market investors now put the odds of a 0.25% rate cut at about 70%. 

Last week, Statistics Canada confirmed that inflation pressures declined again in April.

Bond yields finally broke lower last week, and that has relieved some of the pressure on our fixed- mortgage rates.

Today’s post explains why our fixed and variable mortgage rates will likely be heading in opposite directions in the near future.

Government spending is high on both sides of border - here's how it may matter to our mortgage rates.

Five key observations about the Bank's latest communications, which will be of interest to anyone keeping an eye on Canadian mortgage rates.

When will much anticipated rate cuts start happening? 

Mortgage-related news made headlines again last week.

Last week was chock full of news with implications for Canadian mortgage rates.

Last week the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 5%.

It will be a shock if the Bank of Canada moves its policy rate when it meets this week.

A closer look at the data suggests a soft landing may still be elusive. 

Last week continued a run of surprisingly strong economic data on both sides of the 49^th parallel.

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 5% last week, as expected.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) isn’t expected to cut its policy rate when it meets this Wednesday, so the focus this time will be for hints on the timing of when the first one will...

Shelter costs are the biggest component of inflation - so will the Bank of Canada start to measure inflation without it, knowing its own rate moves have an impact?

This week's Canadian mortgage news and tips from expert David Larock.

The year ends with a likely change to the higher-for-longer interest-rate view.

This week's Canadian mortgage news and tips from expert David Larock.

This week's Canadian mortgage news and tips from expert David Larock.

This week's Canadian mortgage news and tips from expert David Larock.

This week's Canadian mortgage news and tips from expert David Larock.

This week's Canadian mortgage news and tips from expert David Larock.

This week's Canadian mortgage news and tips.

This week's Canadian mortgage news and tips.

This week in Canadian mortgage news and tips.

Weekly update on the latest in Canadian mortgage news and numbers.

We received the latest GDP data for both Canada and the US last week, and today’s post will start with my take on how it will likely impact our mortgage rates over the near term.

There was a lot of mortgage-related news last week.

What this week's news means for Canadian mortgage borrowers.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its policy rate steady last week. That means our variable mortgage and home-equity line-of-credit rates will remain at their current levels, at least...

Last week we learned that our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter on an annualized basis, well below both the consensus forecast of +1.2% and the...

Last week Statistics Canada confirmed that our headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 2.8% to 3.3% in July (annualized).

Your Weekly Canadian Mortgage Update

Last week Statistics Canada confirmed that our economy shed approximately 6,000 jobs in July, a far cry from the 20,000 increase that the consensus was anticipating.

Weekly Interest Rate Update

The Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked its policy rate by another 0.25% last Wednesday, as widely expected. That means our variable mortgage rates will increase by the same amount in...

Fixed mortgage rates rose again last week, and the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to hike its policy rate by another 0.25% when it meets this Wednesday.

Last week included several data releases that were noteworthy for anyone keeping an eye on Canadian mortgage rates.

If you’re in the market for a mortgage today, you may be experiencing some sticker shock now that mortgage rates have risen to their highest levels in about twenty years.

All Canadian mortgage rates moved higher last week.

Last week the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised financial markets by raising its policy rate by another 0.25%. 

Will the Bank of Canada hike its policy rate when it meets this Wednesday?

The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 4.4% on a year-over-year basis in April, up from 4.3% in March.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 4.9% on a year-over-year (YoY) basis in April, and by 0.4% on a month-over-month (MoM) basis.

Last week the US Federal Reserve joined the Bank of Canada (BoC) when it shifted to the talk-tough-and-do-nothing phase of its monetary-policy cycle.

Last week Statistics Canada confirmed that our GDP increased by 0.1% in February on a month-over-month basis (MoM).

Last week, Statistics Canada confirmed that our Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 4.3% in March on a year-over-year basis, down from 5.2% in February and well below the peak...

The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its policy rate steady last week, and that was welcome news for variable-rate borrowers who have watched their rates increase by 4.25% over the past...

All eyes will be on the Bank of Canada (BoC) when it meets this Wednesday.

In today’s upside-down world, good news for our economy is bad news for our mortgage rates because it increases the likelihood that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will either hike its...

When central bankers cranked up their policy rates to combat runaway inflation, they knew that it would create economic pain.

The inflation debate has suddenly taken a backseat to concerns about systemic financial risk in both the US and Europe.

Last week was a busy one for anyone keeping an eye on Canadian mortgage rates.

Let’s start with this week’s most welcome news.

Last week Statistics Canada confirmed that our Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from 6.3% in December to 5.9% in January on a year-over-year (YoY) basis.

Last week we learned the Canadian economy added an estimated 150,000 new jobs in January, ten times higher than the consensus estimate of 15,000.

The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by another 0.25% up to a target range of 4.50% to 4.75%.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked by another 0.25% last Wednesday. 

Most forecasters expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to hike its policy rate by another 0.25% when it meets this Wednesday.

Last week we received the latest US inflation data, for December, and the results came in at or a little below consensus forecasts.

Expect more volatility over the next 12 months, where good news equals bad news, and both pivots - and crashes - aren't likely. 

What a long, strange trip 2022 has been.

The current policy rate is now 4.25% - what's next in the new year?

This week, the Bank will be meeting to decide where our interest rates will go next.

What you need to know - and why these rates are different from what we saw in 2008 south of the border.

But it make take some time before inflation starts dropping.

Why the celebration is likely premature - and what Canadian mortgage borrowers should do now.

Last week was an eventful one for anyone keeping an eye on Canadian mortgage rates.

Why this isn't the pivot that some have been anticipating.

Short-term options for mortgage borrowers do not look enticing - when might things begin to change?

US and Canadian bond yields continued their seemingly inexorable rise last week.

I hope that you all enjoyed a happy Thanksgiving weekend.

And what it means for Canadian mortgage holders.

And why Canada's rate hiking cycle may not last as long.

Why I believe the US Federal Reserve will surprise markets with more-hawkish-than-expected policy-rate language this week.

What's happening now and what is likely to happen next.

All eyes will be on the Bank of Canada (BoC) when it meets this week.

And why I have decided to alter my near-term rate forecast.

Here is my take on how US and Canadian employment momentum (or the lack thereof) will impact Canadian mortgage rates.

In today’s post I focus on three economic signposts and explain how they inform my outlook for Canadian fixed and variable mortgage rates.

Here are five key observations relating to last week’s jumbo-sized Bank of Canada rate hike.

Why a 0.50% increase by the Bank of Canada is a better option than the 0.75% hike the consensus expects this Wednesday.

Authorities try to reduce the risk of mortgage borrower distress given potential home price drops - but fail to address one rising risk.

A detailed look at last month's inflation data and the implications for Canadian mortgage rates.

Let’s try something different this week.

A contrarian case for inflation and interest rates falling back more quickly than most forecasts predict.

Here's a quick recap to ensure you are on top of the latest news you need to know.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has faced plenty of criticism of late. What does this mean for fixed and variable mortgage rates going forward?

Surging prices continue to dominate the headlines, but last week’s US inflation data offered the first glimmer of hope that inflation may finally have peaked.

And what it means for Canadian mortgages.

Canadian mortgage rates have been on a tear lately.

Mortgage rates have surged higher of late.

Today's post offers five key points from the Bank of Canada's latest communications surrounding its 0.50% policy-rate hike.

In today’s post I outline the new housing-related measures that were announced in the 2022 federal budget and offer my take on their likely impact.

Today's post compares the risk of borrowing at five-year fixed rates after their recent dramatic rise to the risk that five-year variable rates will surge even higher.

Today’s post explains why the most recent round of fixed-rate mortgage hikes will impact the market in new and significant ways.

Russia's war on Ukraine has the potential to significantly impact the global economy, and relatedly, our mortgage rates.

The Bank of Canada hiked last week and the key questions now are: How fast will its policy-rate rise and how high will it ultimately go?

I expect the BoC to hike its policy rate this Wednesday, and in today's post I offer my take on whether variable-rate borrowers should respond by locking in.

Your recent mortgage must-knows all in one place!

US inflation surged higher last week and took our fixed mortgage rates along for the ride. In today's post, I explain why US inflation fear may soon peak out.

Our economy shed 200,000 jobs in January. Strangely, GoC bond yields surged higher on the same day that news was released, and today’s post explains why.

The BoC just confirmed that it will soon begin to raise its policy rate. The key questions for variable-rate mortgage borrowers are: How fast and by how much?

The bond market is now assigning about 80% odds of a BoC rate hike this Wednesday. I continue to take the other side of that bet, and the latest inflation data helps support my...

There is widespread speculation that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will start to raise its policy rate at its upcoming meeting on January 26.

Why five-year variable rates will likely save money versus their fixed-rate equivalents in 2022 (and beyond).

Normally the news quiets down as we head into the holidays, but last week was packed with important updates for anyone keeping an eye on mortgage rates.

The Bank of Canada held rates steady last week and also pushed back against the bond market’s bet on a more rapid rate-hike timetable.

Last week had five important updates that have implications for our mortgage rates, spanning from Omicron to the latest employment and GDP data

Our Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to its highest level in 19 years last month, but the CPI component that matters most of all still lags.

The steady drumbeat of inflation warnings have variable-rate borrowers wondering whether they should lock into a fixed rate.

Today’s post highlights what the US Fed said last week, offers my take on the latest US and CDN employment data, and explains why I think the rate-hike hype is getting to be a bit...

A self-reinforcing cycle of higher expected inflation leading to higher actual inflation is the primary risk that central bankers now face.

Variable mortgage rates can seem like a scary option in these uncertain times, but are they really that risky? My answer might surprise you.

While bonds and the fixed-mortgage rates they are based on may rise, policy rate hikes - and variable rate rises - are less likely.

Here's what this may mean for our mortgage rates.

Will continuing inflation worries in the wake of Covid-19 lead to tightening monetary policy - and the resulting impacts on mortgage rates?

What America's top financial body's next move may mean for Canadian mortgage rates.

Inflation will likely be a longer-term issue for Canada - but it may not affect our interest rates immediately.

Of the many measures being put forward, which proposals will actually help Canadians with housing affordability?

While North American inflationary pressures in the wake of Covid-19 are a risk - there are signs that such pressures - and the impact they may have on our mortgage rates - may be...

Why it is unlikely that the the Bank of Canada will raise the rates that affect our mortgages ahead of its US counterpart.

Here's the latest on news and developments  that may impact Canadian mortgage rates. 

The numbers suggest an economic recovery is underway, will higher mortgage rates follow?

A key factor to watch will be the cost of worker wages which have risen as the economy re-opens.

The US Federal Reserve has moved up its projected increases up from 2023 to 2024 as debate over inflationary pressures continues.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) held a steady course at its meeting last week, but where will mortgage rates go from here?

Latest economic data suggests Canadian mortgage rates will hold steady.

With even experts mixed on where inflation will go, mortgage holders should dig into the debate to decide for themselves.

Out catching rays? Here's a quick catch-up on key news that relates to your mortgage.

The inflation bogeyman has arrived - but does that mean higher mortgage rates?

Lower Canada jobs numbers could be attributed to our continued lockdowns - but why is the US jobs recovery also lagging amidst high vaccination rates?

In spite of the BoC's most recent statement signalling earlier rate hikes, variable rate mortgage borrowers may not want to lock in just yet.

Is the Bank of Canada shifting away from rates staying ultra low - and should mortgage borrowers lock in now?

These are tumultuous times for both Canadian mortgage rates and real estate.

Canada banking regulator tries to cool rising house prices as of June 1st - but are they taking the right approach? 

It's easy to blame interest rates for Canada's current housing unaffordability, but housing policy makers could do more amidst a pandemic-economic crisis.

In a rare week of no new Canada mortgage news, it's a good opportunity to make sure your mortgage planning is in tune with current realities.

Where will things go in the ongoing fight between the central banks and the bond market - and what should mortgage borrowers do?

Where will things go for variable and fixed rate mortgage borrowers?

With fixed rates rising, should you be changing your game plan?

Sometimes inflation fears cause more inflation, but there are signs this spike in Canada is temporary. 

Five-year fixed mortgage rates are on the way up in response to the growing consensus belief that US inflationary pressures will rise quickly. 

Happy Family Day to Move Smartly Readers! Here's a review of top mortgage tips for 2021. 

While lockdowns have lowered infection rates and saved lives, it has negatively impacted our economic momentum and will ultimately add to the time needed for our society to...

We are in the middle of a race between the virus and the cure, and both the timing and the outcome are still very much in question. The direction of mortgage rates depend on who...

Five insights into the Bank of Canada's optimistic forecast due to falling infection rates and large-scale vaccinations, and what that means for your mortgage. 

We're in for a tough winter but there's hope. Forecasters expect our economy to rebound robustly and inflation to surge, as consumers spend the cash they saved during the...

How COVID's second wave will impact unemployment and overall business, increasing the likelihood for another Bank of Canada rate cut.  

Happy New Year to Move Smartly Readers! Here's a look at the current consensus forecast and the fixed and variable mortgage rates for the year ahead. 

A very Happy Holidays to Move Smartly Readers! Here's a review of top mortgage tips to take you into 2021 given the crazy year that was. 

How concerns about the Canadian dollar rising against its U.S. counterpart may affect our mortgage rates going forward.

These are the key factors that will impact Canadian mortgages and rates going forward.

Why predictions of a quick resolution to the pandemic - and rising mortgage rates - may be premature.

Inflation spiked last month.

Bond yields, which fixed mortgage rates are based on, have recently surged, but is this just a blip?

With a slowing job recovery and Covid resurgent, mortgage rates are likely to fall further - here's how to take advantage.

With the Bank of Canada keeping its policy low last week and until 2023, the fixed vs. variable debate is an unusually one-sided one right now.

Why inflationary pressures will do little to impact our declining mortgage rates.

Will financial markets remain confident in Canadian real estate as the BoC winds up and keep our mortgage rates at their present lows?

Why we are not out of the Sugar Maples by a long shot.

While initial numbers have been encouraging, the recovery is now proving to as sluggish as predicted.

Essential fall reading to ensure your mortgage is on the right track.

Given current central bank policy in Canada and the U.S., will variable rate mortgages stay lower than fixed rates over the next five years?

Last Wednesday the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced that it would hold its policy rate steady, as was universally expected.

While good job numbers normally mean rising mortgage rates, our economy is still far from normal.

If you want to know where mortgage rates are headed, inflation holds the key.

Why is the head of the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) going his own way amidst an economic crisis?

Canadian mortgage rates have been on a wild ride of late.

COVID-19 is redefining the world as we know it.

Strong jobs numbers in May and June mean little against the backdrop of unprecedented job and income loss due to COVID-19.

Calculators, links and info you need to make the best decisions for you.

The Bank of Canada joins those forecasting a prolonged and difficult economic road ahead.

If you need a mortgage soon, your goal should be to maintain flexibility in case rates continue to fall.

The spring real estate market is showing signs of life - and the usual big bank low rate teaser.

Not all mortgage lenders will implement CMHC's tighter rules, opening the door to more competition.

Last week, the CMHC's CEO had a surprising suggestion.

It's Week 10 - here's a recap of tips to manage your mortgage.

The pandemic-induced economic slowdown will lower mortgage rates - but how low will they go?

These five factors will help you figure out whether you'd come out ahead.

In spite of rate cuts and more aggressive measures, mortgage rates haven't lowered - until now. 

The Bank has acted aggressively to counter the economic shocks induced by the Coronavirus and the decline of oil - and their efforts to lower mortgage rates may finally be working.

The economic fallout of the coronavirus crisis is making mortgage lenders seize up - and two main factors will determine how cautious they'll be: house prices and job losses.

Why a variable rate mortgage is the clear winner for borrowers right now - while those holding HELOCs should beware. 

After nearly five years with no decreases, the bank's policy rate has dropped all the way from 1.75% to 0.25% in March alone - but not all mortgage borrowers will benefit.

Lenders have raised both their fixed and variable mortgage rates to the surprise of many borrowers - here's how to manage your mortgage during this stressful time.

While authorities have announced that Canadians will be able to defer their mortgage payments due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, some key limits apply.

As the world goes into lock-down to stem the COVID-19 (Coronavirus), what should we be doing with our mortgages?

Global economic shocks have led to unforeseen drops in mortgage interest rates - so what should borrowers do going forward?

Why it's unlikely that the Bank of Canada will lower its policy rate - and our mortgage rates - this Wednesday.

The necessary change would increase buyer budgets today, but likely decrease affordability in hot markets and introduce more volatility for buyers going forward.

A drop in the stress-test rate would be good news for borrowers  needing to expand affordability, but should our big banks be calling these shots?

An global health crisis is pushing investors towards safe havens, leading to a (lamentably costly) drop in fixed mortgage interest rates.

No change to policy rate keeps variable mortgage rates steady, but a less optimistic economic outlook pushes down fixed rates. 

In today’s post I offer my predictions of where our fixed and variable mortgage rates are headed in 2020.

While the mortgage stress test has helped ease overheating housing markets, will the Trudeau government finally address its flaws?

Our current economic conditions suggest that lower interest rates may be coming soon, but the Bank of Canada does not share that assessment - yet.

Sluggish 3rd quarter data means the Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut its policy rate - though it risks the need for more aggressive cuts in the future.

Fixed and variable mortgage rates are staying put for now - but there's a case for a rate cut in the future.

According to the Chinese Zodiac, 2019 is the Year of the Pig, but history may better remember it as the Year of the Falling Interest Rate.

Variable-rate mortgage borrowers are understandably wondering whether to convert to today’s lower five-year fixed rates. But should they?

Why the variable interest rate may soon join the fixed interest rate - and start falling.

Why you may want to prioritize flexibility when it comes to your fixed-rate mortgage right now.

Canadian fixed mortgage rates continued to rise last week.

Stuck between a slowing U.S. economy and the risk of fuelling Canadian consumer indebtedness, officials have another reason to delay a rate cut.

As the U.S. economy starts to stall, will Canadian variable-rate borrowers see their first drop in four years?

As Canadians head to the polls for the federal election, here are the policies they should be looking for.

Converging U.S. and Canadian economies makes a variable-rate cut more likely this December. 

While fixed rates seem likely to go up in the short-term, home buyers locking in rates now should ask lenders what will happen if rates fall before they move in.

While the Bank of Canada sees a rocky economic outlook ahead, it didn't cut rates - yet.

Will rising inflation prevent the Bank from cutting its policy rate at its next meeting on September 4?

While Canadian interest rates are likely to go lower, we'd be wrong to envy Danish-style negative interest rates.

The Bank of Canada likely overtightened during its last cycle - will it have to cut rates now that the world economy is slowing?

Though the U.S. rate cut last week didn't spur the expected market reaction, it means that Canada mortgage rates will likely stay steady - or lower.

Why we might be excited by the prospect of negative yield bonds - and interest-free or lower mortgages - they would be bad news.

A key 'stress test' faced by Canadian mortgage borrowers has been slackened - but more changes are required to increase affordability beyond a few thousand dollars.

The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% last week as expected - and finally opts for caution over optimism.

Why export-oriented Canada balances its fight against inflation against the need for a competitive dollar.

The Canadian economy's most recent inflation numbers mean a rate cut is less likely - unless the U.S. Fed forces the Bank of Canada's hand.

If you are keeping an eye on mortgage rates, then you have probably been reading a lot about inverted yield curves lately.

The Bank of Canada is signalling an interest rate hike...so why is the bond market betting on a cut?

With inflation under control, will weaker economic data mean the Bank of Canada may soon look to cut interest rates?

If it's healthier for the economy when more of us choose longer-term mortgages, Ottawa can do something to make this happen.

Last week we learned that Canadian GDP contracted by 0.14% in February on a month-over-month basis.

Have the Bank of Canada's overly optimistic forecasts actually hurt our overall economic momentum?

Will the Bank of Canada continue to shift to a more dovish outlook given latest economic developments?

The five-year Government of Canada (GoC) bond yield, which our five-year fixed mortgage rates are priced on, has been on a wild ride of late.

The Bank of Canada is downplaying expectations that its next rate move will be a cut - but it may not have as much choice as it wants.

Canadian fixed mortgage rates have been on a steady downward march of late.

The Liberal Government of Canada has released a budget that seeks to help beleaguered first-time buyers - but will it help?

A variable-rate mortgage sounds like a slam dunk in the current environment, but it may not be.

Given conflicting economic data, will the Bank of Canada raise or lower rates?

Will the Bank of Canada put an end to rate hike speculation when it meets this week?

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz way want higher rates, but he needs stable inflation.  

The Canadian economy added 66,800 new jobs in January vs. 8,000 expected - so why aren't our mortgage rates impacted?

A key policy statement from south of the border suggests that our mortgage rates are unlikely to rise in Canada.

Will the latest in the trouble spots of Canadian oil prices, house prices and global trade policy change the Bank of Canada's intention to hike rates?

Has the Bank of Canada rushed too far in front of an uncertain economy?

 Frothy economic hopes are dissipating, making future mortgage rate increases unlikely.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike its policy rate by another 0.25% when it meets this Wednesday. The question that is being actively debated is whether it will...

Just like that, all of the dire warnings about rapidly rising Canadian mortgage rates disappeared faster than cookies and carrots on Christmas Eve. 

The Bank of Canada, in a softening of its stance, is not expected to raise its policy rate this week so variable mortgage rates should hold steady - and perhaps start falling in...

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is caught between a rock (rising inflationary pressures) and a hard place (waning economic momentum).

Today’s post returns to the question that every borrower I work with loves to ask: “Should I choose a five-year fixed- or variable-rate mortgage today?"

The Bank of Canada continues to signal policy-rate hikes soon, but does the current economic data support additional near-term increases?

The Bank of Canada remains on course to raise interest rates - pushing up mortgage rates - but will lagging wage growth give it pause?

The Bank of Canada has signalled that rates will continue to rise - but for how long given larger economic data trends?

Will current optimism about Canada's economy push our mortgage rates up?

If you’re keeping an eye on Canadian mortgage rates, keep your other eye focused on what is happening south of the border.

How will the new United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) impact the Canadian economy - and our mortgage rates?

Now that U.S. rates have increased - will Canadians rates mortgage rates follow?

After years without rate increases, variable rate borrowers may soon see an increase for the fifth time in a row - is it time to lock into a fixed rate?

An insider looks back on the impact of the 2008 U.S. subprime mortgage crisis from a Canadian perspective.

If the Bank of Canada has moved to responding to fast-moving incoming data, will rates really rise in late October as currently expected?

Many expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates in late October - but does NAFTA uncertainty make that less likely?

While the consensus expects another BoC rate rise in October, economic data between now and then may suggest otherwise. 

Why did Canadian bond yields, which our five-year fixed mortgage rates are priced on, finish lower in spite of a jump in new jobs?

Here are five news items from last week that should be of interest to anyone keeping an eye on Canadian mortgage rates.

The key question for anyone keeping an eye on Canadian mortgage rates. 

Last Friday we learned that overall Canadian inflation, as measured by our Consumer Price Index (CPI), came in at 2.5% in June, and that result was higher than the consensus...

The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised its overnight rate by 0.25% last Wednesday and it now stands at 1.5%. The move was widely expected, and Canadian lenders quickly increased their...

It is widely expected that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will raise its overnight rate by another 0.25% when it meets this week, and if it does, lenders will pass that increase on to...

In its most recent policy statement released on May 30, the Bank of Canada (BoC) gave every indication that it would raise its overnight rate, which our variable mortgage rates...

The Bank of Canada just got another reminder about the perils of offering forward guidance.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its policy rate steady last week but warned in its accompanying statement that our next rate hike is not far off.

As the variable-rate mortgage wars rage on, savvy borrowers are advised to look carefully at the terms and conditions in their mortgage contract.

In last week’s post I made the case for five-year variable rates over their fixed-rate equivalents, based on my current view of where our economy is headed. 

It’s time for a fresh look at the question every borrower loves to ask: Is now a good time to choose a fixed or variable rate?

Last week TD Canada Trust raised its five-year posted rate from 5.14% to 5.59%, and shortly thereafter, Royal Bank and National Bank increased their five-year posted rates from...

The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its overnight rate unchanged last week, as most market watchers expected. The Bank also released its latest quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR),...

The Bank of Canada (BoC) meets this Wednesday, and while most market watchers aren’t expecting the Bank to raise its overnight rate at this meeting there is still the possibility...

Last Friday Statistics Canada released our latest employment report, for March.

Last week, Statistics Canada confirmed that our economic momentum slowed sharply in January as our GDP fell by 0.1% over the month. The drop was primarily attributed to sharp...

Last week Statistics Canada confirmed that year-over-year overall inflation growth spiked from 1.7% in January to 2.2% in February. At the same time, two of the three gauges that...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

When the Bank of Canada (BoC) met last week, it left its overnight rate unchanged, as expected.

The only real question...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

Last Thursday, seemingly out of the blue, President Trump announced that the U.S. would impose a 25% tariff on...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

Our January inflation data have provided the latest fuel for the ongoing debate about when the Bank of Canada (BoC)...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

After thirteen straight months of impressive gains, Canada’s labour market hit the brakes hard last month.

Our economy...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

Last Friday U.S. bond yields surged higher as investors reacted to the release of a stronger-than-expected U.S....

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

The consensus continues to believe that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will raise its policy rate by another 0.50% to 0.75%...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised its policy rate by 0.25% last week, and it now stands at 1.25%.

Lender prime rates...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

In today’s post I offer my forecast for five-year variable rates in 2018. (FYI - You can read my forecast for...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

Welcome back!

First off, I’d like to wish a very happy new year to my readers.

In today’s post I offer my forecast for...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its policy rate unchanged last week, as expected.

In its accompanying statement the Bank...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

Last Friday Statistics Canada confirmed that our economy added a whopping 79,500 new jobs in November, and that result...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

On January 1, 2018, our regulators will implement a sixth round of mortgage rule changes as part of their ongoing...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

Anyone keeping an eye on Canadian mortgage rates should pay close attention to our inflation data, which contain...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

As of January 1, 2018, everyone who borrows from a federally regulated mortgage lender must qualify using the Mortgage...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

Last week we received the Canadian employment data for October, which was better than expected.

Our economy added...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its policy rate unchanged last week, as expected. The Bank also sounded more cautious...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finances

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In Part One of my four-part series covering our Department of Finance’s latest round of mortgage-rule changes, we...

Dave Larock in Interest Rate Update, Mortgages and Finance

In Part One of this series about the upcoming mortgage-rule changes, we focused on the first change that takes effect...