We’re starting to see more buyers slowly step back into the market. Many of them were priced out a year ago, but with prices down $100K to $150K in some areas, they can finally afford homes that were out of reach not long ago.
Low-rise home sales in September were up 11% over last year’s weak levels, led by the outer suburbs - areas that have seen the biggest price declines are now seeing the strongest rebound in sales.
That said, the market still feels quiet on the ground. Even well-priced homes and condos are getting just a handful of showings each week. A few listings are selling over asking, but those prices are typically at the lower end of the range, as buyers remain cautious.
They’re not diving back in - they’re testing the water.
Across the GTA, the average home price fell 5% in September compared to last year, to $1.267M - the eighth straight month of annual price declines. Condos are showing a similar trend, with sales up 10%, listings up 13%, and nearly seven months of inventory, keeping the market firmly in buyer’s market territory. The average condo price was $676K, down 4% year-over-year.
Monthly Statistics
House sales (low-rise freehold detached, semi-detached, townhouse, etc.) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in September 2025 were up 11% compared to the same month last year.
New house listings in September were up 10% compared to last year.
The number of houses available for sale (“active listings”) was up 26% in September compared to the same month last year.
The Months of Inventory ratio (MOI) looks at the number of homes available for sale in a given month divided by the number of homes sold in that month. It answers the following question: If no more homes came on the market for sale, how long would it take for all the existing homes on the market to sell, given the current level of demand? The higher the MOI, the cooler the market is. A balanced market (a market where prices are neither rising nor falling) is one where MOI is between four to six months. The lower the MOI, the more rapidly we would expect prices to rise.
While the current level of MOI gives us clues into how competitive the market is on-the-ground today, the direction it is moving in also gives us some clues into where the market September is heading.
The MOI for houses increased to 5 in September.
The share of houses selling for more than the owner’s list price increased to 25% in September.
The average price for a house in September 2025, $1,266,747, was down 5% from the same month last year.
The median house price in September was $1,080,000, down 6% over last year.
The median is calculated by ordering all the sale prices in a given month and then selecting the price at the midpoint of that list such that half of all home sales are above that price and half are below that price. Economists often prefer the median price over the average because it is less sensitive to big increases in the sale of high-end or low-end homes in a given month, which can skew the average price.
Condo (condominiums, including condo apartments, condo townhouses, etc.) sales in the Toronto area in September 2025 were down 4% compared to the same month last year.
New condo listings were down 1% in September over last year.
The number of condos available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was up 13% over last year.
Condo months of inventory were unchanged at 6.8 MOI in September.
The share of condos selling for over the asking price fell to 14% in September.
The average price of a condo in September was $676,460, down 4% from last year. The median price was $607,000, down 5% from last year.
Houses
All five regions experienced sales increases in September compared to the same period last year with York and Toronto seeing the biggest increase at 18% and 15% respectively. Average house prices were dwon in all five regions with Halton, Peel and York seeing an 8% decline over last year.
Condos
Condo sales were up 19% in Peel and up 10% in Toronto and York. Average prices were down in all five regions with Peel seeing the biggest decline at 7%. The MOI is above last year’s level, indicating a cooler market for condos this year.
John Pasalis is President of Realosophy Realty. A specialist in real estate data analysis, John’s research focuses on unlocking micro trends in the Greater Toronto Area real estate market. His research has been utilized by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Have questions about your own moves in the Toronto area as a buyer, seller, investor or renter? Book a no-obligation consult with John and his team at a Realosophy here: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn