GTA Housing Market Update – March 2025
WATCH NOW: No, The GTA Housing Market Is Not “Turning”
Months of inventory is falling in the GTA, and a growing chorus of realtors is pointing to the decline as proof the market is tightening. The narrative is simple: MOI is down, the spring market is heating up, and buyers should act before they miss the window.
There’s just one problem. MOI almost always falls from March to March. It’s one of the most predictable seasonal patterns in this market.
I looked at 17 years of GTA data, from 2010 to 2026. In all but two of those years, months of inventory declined from March to March. The exceptions were 2022, when the Bank of Canada started hiking rates, and 2025, when tariff uncertainty froze buyer activity. Every other year, the pattern held. Sales ramp up faster than inventory in the spring, and MOI compresses.
What’s more, this year’s decline is actually below average. Low-rise MOI fell 26% from March to March, versus a typical 30%. Condo MOI fell 29%, versus a typical 33%. The seasonal pattern is intact, but it’s weaker than usual — not stronger.
What the Q1 Numbers Actually Show
Beneath the MOI headline, the fundamentals remain historically weak. Q1 sales for both low-rise houses and condos hit new record lows — about 7,270 and 4,280 respectively, both well below their long-run averages of roughly 12,900 and 7,100.
Active inventory, while down modestly from last year’s peaks, remains far above normal. Low-rise actives at the end of March sat 38% above average; condo actives were 82% above. Average prices are down 7% year over year for houses and 9% for condos, with both segments now more than 20% below their 2022 peaks.
The two segments are also diverging in an important way. Low-rise new listings have pulled back to historically normal levels, which is helping inventory stabilize. But condo new listings remain 12% above the long-run average — investors continue to bring supply to market even as demand sits near record lows. That structural overhang is why the condo market remains under more pressure.
The Bottom Line
Could conditions improve from here? Absolutely. But the Q1 data we have is not evidence of a turnaround. It’s evidence of a market following its normal seasonal rhythm from a very weak starting point — and doing so at a below-average pace.
A predictable seasonal pattern is not a market signal. Don’t mistake the calendar for a catalyst.
March at a Glance
Houses
Sales were up 2% over last year.
New listings were down 16%.
Active listings were down 8%.
Months of Inventory decreased to 3.9.
Average price: $1,245,518, down 7%.
Median price: $1,060,000, down 10%.
Condos
Sales were up 1% over last year.
New listings were down 17%.
Active listings were down 11%.
Months of Inventory decreased to 5.7.
Average price: $647,106, down 9%.
Median price: $580,000, down 9%.
Monthly Statistics
House sales (low-rise freehold detached, semi-detached, townhouse, etc.) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in March 2025 were up 2% compared to the same month last year.
New house listings in March were down 16% compared to last year.
The number of houses available for sale (“active listings”) was down 8% in March compared to the same month last year.
The Months of Inventory ratio (MOI) looks at the number of homes available for sale in a given month divided by the number of homes sold in that month. It answers the following question: If no more homes came on the market for sale, how long would it take for all the existing homes on the market to sell, given the current level of demand? The higher the MOI, the cooler the market is. A balanced market (a market where prices are neither rising nor falling) is one where MOI is between four to six months. The lower the MOI, the more rapidly we would expect prices to rise.
While the current level of MOI gives us clues into how competitive the market is on-the-ground today, the direction it is moving in also gives us some clues into where the market March is heading.
The MOI for houses fell to 3.9 in March.
The share of houses selling for more than the owner’s list price increased to 27% in March.
The average price for a house in March 2025, $1,245,518, was down 7% from the same month last year.
The median house price in March was $1,060,000, down 10% over last year.
The median is calculated by ordering all the sale prices in a given month and then selecting the price at the midpoint of that list such that half of all home sales are above that price and half are below that price. Economists often prefer the median price over the average because it is less sensitive to big increases in the sale of high-end or low-end homes in a given month, which can skew the average price.
Condo (condominiums, including condo apartments, condo townhouses, etc.) sales in the Toronto area in March 2025 were up 1% compared to the same month last year.
New condo listings were down 17% in March over last year.
The number of condos available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was down 11% over last year.
Condo months of inventory increased to 5.7 MOI in March.
The share of condos selling for over the asking price increased to 14% in March.
The average price of a condo in March was $647,106, down 9% from last year. The median price was $580,000, down 9% from last year.
John Pasalis is President of Realosophy Realty. A specialist in real estate data analysis, John’s research focuses on unlocking micro trends in the Greater Toronto Area real estate market. His research has been utilized by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Have questions about your own moves in the Toronto area as a buyer, seller, investor or renter? Book a no-obligation consult with John and his team at a Realosophy here: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn