The average price of a low-rise home in the GTA is down 6% compared to last year. That's the kind of headline that shapes how buyers and sellers think about the market right now. But here's the problem — it might have very little to do with your neighbourhood.
Let's say your neighbour sold their home for $1 million last year. It's a home nearly identical to yours. You're thinking of listing this spring. Does the 6% decline mean you should expect to sell for $940,000?
Not necessarily.
When average prices are down 6% across the Greater Toronto Area, it doesn't mean prices in every neighbourhood are down by 6%. Some areas are performing far better than the average. Others are seeing declines well in excess of it. The average just blends all of these very different local markets into a single number — one that may not describe any individual neighbourhood particularly well.
I recently compared the average sale prices for low-rise homes in the first four months of 2026 against the first four months of 2025 across GTA municipalities. For the City of Toronto, I used MLS districts in place of municipalities to get a more granular picture.
The chart below shows the distribution — how many municipalities or districts fell into each range of year-over-year price change.
What stands out is the range. Some areas have seen virtually no decline since last year. A handful have actually seen prices tick up slightly. At the other end of the spectrum, some municipalities have seen prices fall by more than 15%.
It may surprise some buyers and sellers, but there are parts of the GTA where home prices haven't seen a material decline at all. I've highlighted some of these competitive neighbourhoods in previous posts — and they are the outliers, just as the areas seeing the steepest declines are. But the key point is that the spread between the best-performing and worst-performing areas is wide.
If you're a buyer in one of these resilient neighbourhoods, the headline 6% decline might make you think you have more negotiating power than you actually do. If you're a seller, it might make you more pessimistic than your local market warrants.
In a volatile market, the statistics and headlines you see in the news are a useful starting point — they tell you the general direction of the overall market. But they won't tell you what's happening on your street. For that, you need to look at what's actually selling in your specific area, and at what prices.
The GTA isn't one housing market. It's dozens of markets moving at different speeds, and sometimes in different directions. Understanding which one you're in makes all the difference.
John Pasalis is President of Realosophy Realty. A specialist in real estate data analysis, John’s research focuses on unlocking micro trends in the Greater Toronto Area real estate market. His research has been utilized by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Have questions about your own moves in the Toronto area as a buyer, seller, investor or renter? Book a no-obligation consult with John and his team at a Realosophy here: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn