GTA Housing Market Update – January 2025
The only thing colder than Toronto’s winter temperatures right now might be Toronto’s condo market.
January data is now in, and it’s becoming harder to ignore just how much the condo segment has weakened. Condo sales were down 26% compared to the same time last year, and this was the slowest January we’ve seen since the financial crisis nearly two decades ago.
Some people might try to explain the weakness by pointing to the record snowfall we saw in late January. And to be fair, it was a brutal week to be out driving around. But when you actually look at the weekly sales numbers, that explanation doesn’t really hold up. Sales declines were actually smaller in the final week of the month than earlier in January. This isn’t just weather. Demand is genuinely softer.
The bigger issue in the condo market right now is supply. Months of inventory climbed to eight months in January, the highest level we’ve ever recorded. Listings are piling up faster than buyers are absorbing them.
And when inventory rises that high, prices typically trend lower. The average condo price in January was down roughly 11% from last year, a sign that the pressure is already showing up in the numbers.
The slowdown isn’t limited to condos either. Low-rise sales were also weaker, down about 15% year-over-year. Active listings in the low-rise market have risen sharply, pushing months of inventory to just over five months. Prices have softened here too, with the average low-rise home down about 7% from last year.
As we head into the spring market, the big question is whether demand begins to return at all.
Spring is typically when activity picks up, but this year is still clouded by a tremendous amount of economic uncertainty, and uncertainty remains the biggest thing keeping buyers on the sidelines.
For the condo market in particular, it’s hard to argue we’ve hit a bottom while inventory continues to climb. Until supply stops building and demand stabilizes, the pressure in Toronto’s condo market may not be finished.
January at a Glance
Houses
Sales were down 15% over last year.
New listings were down 12%.
Active listings were up 13%.
Months of Inventory increased to 5.3.
Average price: $1,181,862, down 7%.
Median price: $1,029,000, down 9%.
Condos
Sales were down 26% over last year.
New listings were down 16%.
Active listings were up 2%.
Months of Inventory increased to 8.
Average price: $625,666, down 11%.
Median price: $570,000, down 10%.
Monthly Statistics
House sales (low-rise freehold detached, semi-detached, townhouse, etc.) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in January 2025 were down 15% compared to the same month last year.
New house listings in January were down 12% compared to last year.
The number of houses available for sale (“active listings”) was up 13% in January compared to the same month last year.
The Months of Inventory ratio (MOI) looks at the number of homes available for sale in a given month divided by the number of homes sold in that month. It answers the following question: If no more homes came on the market for sale, how long would it take for all the existing homes on the market to sell, given the current level of demand? The higher the MOI, the cooler the market is. A balanced market (a market where prices are neither rising nor falling) is one where MOI is between four to six months. The lower the MOI, the more rapidly we would expect prices to rise.
While the current level of MOI gives us clues into how competitive the market is on-the-ground today, the direction it is moving in also gives us some clues into where the market January is heading.
The MOI for houses increased to 5.3 in January.
The share of houses selling for more than the owner’s list price increased to 18% in January.
The average price for a house in January 2025, $1,181,862, was down 7% from the same month last year.
The median house price in January was $1,029,000, down 9% over last year.
The median is calculated by ordering all the sale prices in a given month and then selecting the price at the midpoint of that list such that half of all home sales are above that price and half are below that price. Economists often prefer the median price over the average because it is less sensitive to big increases in the sale of high-end or low-end homes in a given month, which can skew the average price.
Condo (condominiums, including condo apartments, condo townhouses, etc.) sales in the Toronto area in January 2025 were down 26% compared to the same month last year.
New condo listings were down 16% in January over last year.
The number of condos available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was up 2% over last year.
Condo months of inventory increased to 8 MOI in January.
The share of condos selling for over the asking price decreased to 10% in January.
The average price of a condo in January was $625,666, down 11% from last year. The median price was $570,000, down 10% from last year.
John Pasalis is President of Realosophy Realty. A specialist in real estate data analysis, John’s research focuses on unlocking micro trends in the Greater Toronto Area real estate market. His research has been utilized by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Have questions about your own moves in the Toronto area as a buyer, seller, investor or renter? Book a no-obligation consult with John and his team at a Realosophy here: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn