GTA Housing Market Update – May 2026
Toronto’s housing market showed some modest improvement in May, with sales up and inventory down for the third consecutive month. Those headline numbers will likely lead some in the real estate industry to suggest the market has finally bottomed and is beginning to turn a corner.
I’m not convinced.
The top-line numbers sound more encouraging than they actually are. Yes, sales for both houses and condos were up 5% over last year, but they’re rising off exceptionally weak levels. Last year marked one of the slowest housing markets Toronto has seen in more than two decades, so a modest increase in activity doesn’t necessarily signal a strong recovery. Sales remain historically low, just not quite as low as they were a year ago.
The same is true for inventory. Active listings are falling, but they’re declining from record-high levels reached last year. Despite the improvement, Toronto remains firmly in buyer’s market territory, with prices still grinding lower across most market segments.
What continues to weigh on the market is sentiment. Buyers still see little urgency to jump back in. Many expect prices to remain soft and are negotiating accordingly, often looking to buy for less than what comparable homes recently sold for. Until that psychology changes, the market will likely remain sluggish.
That said, there are growing signs that the low-rise housing market may stabilize before the condo market.
If we compare today’s market to May 2019 — a period when the market was far more balanced — an important divergence appears between houses and condos.
Sales activity for both property types remains well below 2019 levels. Condo sales are down roughly 42% from May 2019, while low-rise home sales are down about 32%. But the real difference is on the supply side.
Active listings for houses are only about 10% higher than they were in 2019. Condo inventory, meanwhile, is up 127%.
That gap matters because it means the low-rise market is much closer to balance than the condo market. If sales activity gradually improves from here, the supply-demand conditions for houses could normalize relatively quickly because inventory levels are only modestly elevated.
The condo market faces a very different challenge. Even with a meaningful rebound in sales, inventory remains extraordinarily high relative to historical norms. In other words, condos can see stronger sales activity and still remain stuck in a soft buyer’s market because there’s simply too much supply available.
So while Toronto’s housing market is showing some signs of stabilization, it’s still too early to call this a recovery. The market today looks less like the beginning of a rebound and more like a market slowly trying to find a floor, particularly in the low-rise segment, while the condo market continues to work through a much larger inventory problem.
May at a Glance:
Houses
Sales were up 5% over last year.
New listings were down 18%.
Active listings were down 11%.
Months of Inventory decreased to 3.6.
Average price: $1,272,900, down 4%.
Median price: $1,100,000, down 4%.
Condos
Sales were up 5% over last year.
New listings were down 21%.
Active listings were down 15%.
Months of Inventory decreased to 5.8.
Average price: $660,720, down 6%.
Median price: $580,000, down 7%.
Monthly Statistics
House Statistics
House sales (low-rise freehold detached, semi-detached, townhouse, etc.) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in May 2026 were up 5% compared to the same month last year.
New house listings in May were down 18% compared to last year.
The number of houses available for sale (“active listings”) was down 11% in May compared to the same month last year.
The Months of Inventory ratio (MOI) looks at the number of homes available for sale in a given month divided by the number of homes sold in that month. It answers the following question: If no more homes came on the market for sale, how long would it take for all the existing homes on the market to sell, given the current level of demand? The higher the MOI, the cooler the market is. A balanced market (a market where prices are neither rising nor falling) is one where MOI is between four to six months. The lower the MOI, the more rapidly we would expect prices to rise.
While the current level of MOI gives us clues into how competitive the market is on-the-ground today, the direction it is moving in also gives us some clues into where the market in May is heading.
The MOI for houses fell to 3.6 in May.
The share of houses selling for more than the owner’s list price was unchanged at 27% in May.
The average price for a house in May 2026, $1,272,900, was down 4% from the same month last year.
The median house price in May was $1,100,000, down 4% over last year.
The median is calculated by ordering all the sale prices in a given month and then selecting the price at the midpoint of that list such that half of all home sales are above that price and half are below that price. Economists often prefer the median price over the average because it is less sensitive to big increases in the sale of high-end or low-end homes in a given month, which can skew the average price.
Condo (condominiums, including condo apartments, condo townhouses, etc.) sales in the Toronto area in May 2026 were up 5% compared to the same month last year.
New condo listings were down 21% in May over last year.
The number of condos available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was down 15% over last year.
Condo months of inventory decreased to 5.8 MOI in May.
The share of condos selling for over the asking price decreased to 14% in May.
The average price of a condo in May was $660,720, down 6% from last year. The median price was $580,000, down 7% from last year.
John Pasalis is President of Realosophy Realty. A specialist in real estate data analysis, John’s research focuses on unlocking micro trends in the Greater Toronto Area real estate market. His research has been utilized by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Have questions about your own moves in the Toronto area as a buyer, seller, investor or renter? Book a no-obligation consult with John and his team at a Realosophy here: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn