People often see headlines about the GTA housing market and assume those trends apply directly to their own home and neighbourhood. But the reality is far more nuanced.
A useful way to understand these differences is by looking at a metric called months of inventory (MOI). This measures the balance between supply and demand. For example, if there are 1,000 homes for sale and 200 sold in the past month, that market has 5 months of inventory.
Generally, 4-5 months of inventory signals a balanced market, while higher numbers suggest a buyer’s market and lower ones a seller’s market.
I recently looked at the housing market in downtown Toronto - south of Bloor, from the DVP to Parkdale - to see how MOI varies by home type and, in the case of condos, by unit size.
Micro condos (under 500 sq ft) are deep in buyer’s market territory, with 13 months of inventory. But larger condos - those between 900 and 1,400 sq ft - have only 6 months of inventory, suggesting more balanced conditions.
These units tend to attract end users rather than investors, which helps support demand.
Meanwhile, the low-rise market (detached, semis, and row homes) in the same area is much tighter, with just 3.5 months of inventory - borderline seller’s market territory.
I’ve spoken with several homeowners who assume it’s a terrible time to sell based on broad market headlines. But even in a slower overall market, local dynamics matter. Some segments and neighbourhoods remain highly competitive - and understanding where your home fits into that landscape is the first step to making smarter decisions.
John Pasalis is President of Realosophy Realty. A specialist in real estate data analysis, John’s research focuses on unlocking micro trends in the Greater Toronto Area real estate market. His research has been utilized by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Have questions about your own moves in the Toronto area as a buyer, seller, investor or renter? Book a no-obligation consult with John and his team at a Realosophy here: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn