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A 25-Year Low in GTA Home Sales - What Comes Next for 2026?

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This month’s real estate roundtable brings together John Pasalis, Steve Saretsky, and mortgage broker David Larock for an in-depth look at where the housing market may be headed next. 

WATCH NOW: A 25-Year Low in GTA Home Sales -What Comes Next for 2026?

We kick things off by unpacking the surprising end to 2025, with GTA home sales on pace to hit a 25-year low. The panel breaks down the forces behind the slowdown and how both buyers and sellers are navigating today’s shifting landscape.

The conversation then turns to the conflicting expectations around the Bank of Canada’s next move. While some economists still anticipate additional rate cuts, one major Canadian bank is now calling for a rate hike in 2026 - a scenario that would have seemed unlikely just months ago. We dig into what this could mean for borrowers, upcoming mortgage renewals, and how price expectations might shift under different rate paths.

We close the discussion by sharing our 2026 market outlook, the indicators we’re watching most closely, and whether next year could mark a long-awaited turning point - or simply the continuation of a challenging market cycle.

John Pasalis is President of Realosophy RealtyA specialist in real estate data analysis, John’s research focuses on unlocking micro trends in the Greater Toronto Area real estate market. His research has been utilized by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Have questions about your own moves in the Toronto area as a buyer, seller, investor or renter? Book a no-obligation consult with John and his team at a Realosophy here: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn

Email John

Published: December 05, 2025
John Pasalis
John Pasalis
John Pasalis is President of Realosophy Realty, a Toronto real estate brokerage which uses data analysis to advise residential real estate buyers, sellers and investors. A specialist in real estate data analysis, John's research focuses on unlocking micro trends in the Greater Toronto Area real estate market. His research has been shared with the IMF and cited by the Bank of Canada and CMHC. A frequent commentator on the Toronto housing market and real estate consumer and industry issues, John has contributed to the Globe and Mail, CBC, BNN Bloomberg, TVO's The Agenda, Toronto Star and other media, national and international government and industry organizations. John holds a B.Sc. in Economics from the University of Toronto and is a candidate in the Doctorate of Business Administration Program at the University of Toronto and Henley Business School (UK).

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