Move Smartly Toronto Area Real Estate Market Report: July 2024

The Market Now: More Homes, Fewer Buyers: GTA Housing Faces a New Test

Key Issue: CMHC Has Given Up on Making Housing Affordable

Key Issue: How Investor-Owned Housing Is Pushing Families Out of Our Cities

Monthly Stats - June 2025

Home sales across the Greater Toronto Area remained historically low in June, continuing a multi-year trend of subdued activity that has kept sales volumes near 20-year lows. But what sets this year apart is the sheer number of homes now sitting on the market.

Detached home inventory has surged to over 14,000 active listings—more than double the 6,519 available in June 2023 and 65% above the 10-year average for this month. This is the highest June inventory level for detached homes since 2008, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

The condo market is seeing a similar dynamic. The number of condo apartments for sale has doubled compared to last year, climbing from 4,848 in June 2023 to over 10,000 today—marking an all-time record and well above the 10-year seasonal average.

This steady buildup of listings over the past few years has pushed active inventory to levels that are now putting downward pressure on prices, which are about 5% lower than a year ago.

Looking ahead, activity will likely stay muted through the summer as many buyers put their searches on hold. The real test will come in the fall. A new trade deal with the U.S. could help stabilize buyer sentiment, but with economic uncertainty still lingering, households facing job insecurity may remain cautious about making a move.

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By the Numbers: June 2025

The average price for a house in the Toronto area was $1,303,089 in June, down 6% from the same month last year. Last month's median house price was $1,130,000, down 6% from the same month last year.

House sales in June were up 1% over last year, while new house listings were up 15%. The number of houses available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was up 48% over last year.

The current balance between supply and demand is reflected in the MOI, which measures inventory relative to the number of sales each month. In June, the MOI for houses was 4.6.

The average price for a condo in the Toronto Area was $712,548 in June, down 5% from the previous year. The median price for a condo in June was $630,000, down 6% from the previous year.

Condo sales in June were down 1% over last year, and new condo listings were up 3%. The number of active condo listings was up 29% from last year. The MOI decreased slightly to 7.

Browse detailed monthly statistics for June 2025 for the entire Toronto area market, including house, condo and regional breakdowns below.

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WATCH NOW: Canada Has Given Up on Making Housing Affordable

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has quietly moved the goalposts on one of the most urgent public policy issues of our time.

In its latest report, the agency no longer aims to restore housing affordability to the levels Canadians enjoyed in the early 2000s. Instead, CMHC’s new benchmark is far more modest: bringing affordability back to 2019 levels.

This isn’t progress - it’s a retreat. And it reflects a deeper failure: CMHC has spent years advancing a housing strategy focused almost entirely on increasing supply, while ignoring the forces driving demand.

Over the past decade, Canada’s population growth has surged, peaking at over 1.2 million people per year in 2024. But as this record growth put intense pressure on housing, CMHC didn’t raise the alarm. It didn’t warn that homebuilding would fall far short of what’s needed causing homeownership to be permanently pushed out of reach for many Canadians. Instead, it clung to a single, increasingly implausible solution: that if we could just build faster - tripling completions, almost overnight - we could solve the affordability crisis.

That belief has now collapsed under the weight of its own hubris.

CMHC’s revised affordability targets speak volumes. In Toronto, their own data show that by 2019, the average cost of homeownership had already reached 59% of gross household income - nearly double the conventional 30% affordability threshold. Yet that is now CMHC’s new standard: a deeply unaffordable baseline, reframed as success.

Why the shift? CMHC points to challenges around labour shortages and development timelines. But the real problem is structural. By refusing to acknowledge the impact of demand - driven not just by immigration but also by a surge in non-permanent residents, speculative investment, and the growing financialization of housing - CMHC has painted itself into a corner.

Canada’s homeownership rate has been falling for over 15 years, as more of our housing stock is bought by investors - including elected officials. Has CMHC raised this as a concern? Have they advocated for policies to prioritize homes for households rather than speculators?

They haven’t. In fact, when Statistics Canada reported that more than 100,000 homes had been converted to short-term rentals, CMHC’s response was to downplay the issue, stating that short-term rentals “are not a pivotal factor on the long-term rental market.” A hundred thousand lost homes might not matter in their model - but it certainly matters to the families trying to find one.

This is the logical outcome of an ideology that treats homes as investment vehicles first and shelter second. CMHC’s modelling is designed to maintain market stability - not restore access to housing for the next generation.

And that’s the real danger here. By clinging to a supply-only framework - and refusing to confront the outsized role that demand plays in today’s housing market - CMHC has effectively normalized a future where high prices and falling homeownership are the new baseline.

We didn’t get here because we failed to build fast enough. We got here because we refused to deal with the full picture. And unless we shift our approach, the next generation of Canadians will remain locked out - not despite CMHC’s advice, but because of it.

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As more 3-bedroom homes are bought by investors and converted into rentals, young families are quietly disappearing from our cities.

This isn’t just about affordability - it’s about ownership. The data shows that families aren’t looking to raise their kids in rental houses, even if they’re large enough. They want stability. They want the long-term security that comes with owning a home. And when they can’t find that, they leave.

This trend isn’t anecdotal. New research from Mike Moffatt and the Missing Middle Initiative provides compelling data from the 2016 and 2021 Censuses in Ontario. It finds a strong correlation between the growth of owner-occupied 3+ bedroom homes and the population growth of children under five. In contrast, areas where more of these homes were converted to rentals saw declines in the number of young children.

To put it plainly: families don’t want to start or grow a family in a rental unit. They want to own the homes they live in. And when that path is closed off - when they’re forced to compete with investors for the same low-rise family housing - they move elsewhere.

That’s one of the reasons I’ve been vocal about the role investors play in our housing market - particularly in the low-rise segment. These homes were designed to house families, not portfolios. When they become investment assets, they stop serving the people they were built for.

And yet, for years, we’ve heard the same tired excuses from government and housing experts:
"It's just a supply issue."
"Blame restrictive zoning."
"Population growth is the problem."

Everything under the sun, except the most obvious point: families aren’t losing access to housing because it doesn’t exist - they’re losing access because they’re being outbid.

It’s not enough to simply build more homes. We need housing policy that recognizes this reality. That means prioritizing owner-occupied homes and disincentivizing investor ownership - especially in the part of the market meant for families.

If we want families to stay in our cities, we need to make it possible - and realistic - for them to put down roots.

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Monthly Statistics

House Statistics

House sales (low-rise freehold detached, semi-detached, townhouse, etc.) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in June 2025 were up 1% compared to the same month last year.

New house listings in June were up 15% compared to last year.

The number of houses available for sale (“active listings”) was up 48% in June compared to the same month last year.

The Months of Inventory ratio (MOI) looks at the number of homes available for sale in a given month divided by the number of homes sold in that month. It answers the following question: If no more homes came on the market for sale, how long would it take for all the existing homes on the market to sell, given the current level of demand? The higher the MOI, the cooler the market is. A balanced market (a market where prices are neither rising nor falling) is one where MOI is between four to six months. The lower the MOI, the more rapidly we would expect prices to rise.

While the current level of MOI gives us clues into how competitive the market is on-the-ground today, the direction it is moving in also gives us some clues into where the market June is heading.

The MOI for houses was up slightly at 4.6 in June.

The share of houses selling for more than the owner’s list price decreased to 29% in June.

The average price for a house in June 2025, $1,303,089, was down 6% from the same month last year.

The median house price in June was $1,130,000, down 6% over last year.

The median is calculated by ordering all the sale prices in a given month and then selecting the price at the midpoint of that list such that half of all home sales are above that price and half are below that price. Economists often prefer the median price over the average because it is less sensitive to big increases in the sale of high-end or low-end homes in a given month, which can skew the average price.

Condo Statistics

Condo (condominiums, including condo apartments, condo townhouses, etc.) sales in the Toronto area in June 2025 were down 1% compared to the same month last year and at their lowest level in twenty years, aside from the first months of the COVID lockdowns in 2020.