Latest data shows Toronto’s housing market remained competitive in February, but a significant increase in new listings is taking some heat out of the market.
The housing market in Toronto has showing mixed trends depending on the type of home one is considering buying or selling.
Low-rise houses around the $1M price range are seeing the most competition right now. The nicest and most renovated homes each week in this category are receiving multiple offers from buyers on their offer nights. Most sale prices are within a reasonable value range which is keeping a lid on any price growth for now.
Low-rise homes in the $2M+ price range are less competitive, but still moving. Some sellers in this category are pricing their properties below market value with the hope that they’ll receive multiple offers and land a price well above their list price, but in some cases, these offer night tactics are failing. When the seller fails to receive the price they want, they relist their property for a higher price that is inline with what they expect.
The condominium (condo) market is the slowest segment of the housing market right now, in part due to the relatively high volume of active listings. But demand remains relatively strong, with four out of the five regions in the GTA seeing a double-digit increase in condo sales over last year.
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By the Numbers: February 2024
The average price for a house in the Toronto area was $1,358,959 in February, unchanged over the same month last year. Last month's median house price was $1,200,000, up 2% over last year.
House sales in February were up 26% over last year, while new house listings were up 35%.
The number of houses available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was up 36% over last year.
The current balance between supply and demand is reflected in the MOI, which is a measure of inventory relative to the number of sales each month.
In February, the MOI for houses fell to 1.9.
The average price for a condo in the Toronto Area was $726,379 in February, which is unchanged over last year. The median price for a condo in February was $660,000, up 2% over last year.
Condo sales in February were up 19% over last year, and new condo listings were up 36% over last year. The number of active condo listings was up 41% over last year. The MOI decreased slightly to 3.2.
House Statistics
House sales (low-rise freehold detached, semi-detached, townhouse, etc.) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in February 2024 were up 26% compared to the same month last year.
New house listings in February were 35% compared to last year.
The number of houses available for sale (“active listings”) was up 36% in February compared to the same month last year.
The Months of Inventory ratio (MOI) looks at the number of homes available for sale in a given month divided by the number of homes sold in that month. It answers the following question: If no more homes came on the market for sale, how long would it take for all the existing homes on the market to sell, given the current level of demand? The higher the MOI, the cooler the market is. A balanced market (a market where prices are neither rising nor falling) is one where MOI is between four to six months. The lower the MOI, the more rapidly we would expect prices to rise.
While the current level of MOI gives us clues into how competitive the market is on-the-ground today, the direction it is moving in also gives us some clues into where the market may be heading.
The MOI for houses dipped to 1.9 in February, down from 4 MOI in October.
The share of houses selling for more than the owner’s list price increased to 44% in February.
The average price for a house in February was $1,358,959 in February 2024, unchanged compared to the same month last year.
The median house price in February was $1,200,000, up 2% over last year.
The median is calculated by ordering all the sale prices in a given month and then selecting the price at the midpoint of that list such that half of all home sales are above that price and half are below that price. Economists often prefer the median price over the average because it is less sensitive to big increases in the sale of high-end or low-end homes in a given month which can skew the average price.
Condo Statistics
Condo (condominiums, including condo apartments, condo townhouses, etc.) sales in the Toronto area in February 2024 were up 19% over the same month last year.
New condo listings were up 36% in February over last year.
The number of condos available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was up 41% over last year.
Condo months of inventory decreased slightly to 3.2 MOI in February.
The share of condos selling for over the asking price increased to 23% in February.
The average price for a condo in February was $726,379, unchanged over last year. The median price for a condo in February was $660,000, up 2% over last year.
Regional Trends
Houses
All five regions saw sales increases by over 20% in February over last year. Halton saw average prices increase by 9%, while Toronto saw prices dip by 4% in February. All five regions saw significant increases in new listings in February, while the MOI was similar to last year.
Condos
Condo sales were up in all five regions in February, with Peel seeing the biggest increase, up 38% over last year. Average prices were down in Halton, unchanged in Toronto and up slightly in Durham, Peel and York. The MOI is above last year’s for most regions.
Browse Real-Time Market Trends on Movesmartly.com:
See Market Performance by Neighbourhood Map, All Toronto and the GTA
Greater Toronto Area Market Trends
John Pasalis is President of Realosophy Realty. A specialist in real estate data analysis, John’s research focuses on unlocking micro trends in the Greater Toronto Area real estate market. His research has been utilized by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Have questions about your own moves in the Toronto area as a buyer, seller, investor or renter? Book a no-obligation consult with John and his team at a Realosophy here: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn
