Low-rise home prices in the Toronto area are now down 27% from the February 2022 peak — one of the sharpest corrections we’ve seen in decades.
August data shows that low-rise sales were up 8% year-over-year, as some buyers moved off the sidelines to take advantage of lower prices. But the average price of $1.225M is still 7% below last year and far below the $1.68M peak reached in February 2022. With active listings up 35%, inventory growth continues to outpace sales keeping downward pressure on prices.
The condo market looks no stronger.
Sales slipped 2%, while listings rose 18%, leading to a 4% drop in average prices.
Some homeowners are pinning their hopes on the Bank of Canada cutting rates this fall. But the reality is that a weak economy, ongoing uncertainty, and only modest rate relief aren’t enough to spark a surge in demand. Even a new U.S. trade deal, while helpful for confidence, is more likely to bring buyers back gradually, not fuel a hockey-stick rebound.
Toronto’s housing market is adjusting to a new reality: slower demand, more supply, and prices that may need to fall further before stability returns.
John Pasalis is President of Realosophy Realty. A specialist in real estate data analysis, John’s research focuses on unlocking micro trends in the Greater Toronto Area real estate market. His research has been utilized by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Have questions about your own moves in the Toronto area as a buyer, seller, investor or renter? Book a no-obligation consult with John and his team at a Realosophy here: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn
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