The current high interest rate cycle, which started in 2022, has continued to push home sales in the Greater Toronto Area to historic low levels.
Sales of detached houses were at their lowest level on record for the past month of October, the second month in a row we’ve seen detached sales at record lows for a given month.
Preventing a bigger jump in inventory is the sales-to-new-listings ratio increase from 30% in September to 34% in October, signalling that the number of homes selling relative to the number of new listings coming on the market increased from September to October.
This has helped to keep the months of inventory (MOI) for low-rise houses relatively flat at just under four months, which is at the top of the range for a balanced market, moving towards a buyer’s market.
Condo sales were at a 20-year low for the month of October, while new listings remain at their second highest level on record for the month of October.
The months of inventory for condos increased from 5 in September to 5.5 in October, a dramatic increase over six months from just over 1.5 MOI in May, pushing into a buyer’s market.
If the MOI for condos continues to trend up from here, we will likely see more downward pressure on prices in the months ahead.
By the Numbers: October 2023
Year-over-year, the average price for a house in the Toronto area was $1,358,202 in October, up 4% over the same month last year. Last month's median house price was $1,172,000, up 4% over last year.
House sales in October were down 3% over last year, while new house listings were up 44%.
The number of houses available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was up 60% over last year.
The current balance between supply and demand is reflected in the Months of Inventory (MOI), which is a measure of inventory relative to the number of sales each month (for a more detailed explanation of this measure, see the final section of this report).
In October, the MOI for houses increased to 4.0 as discussed above, a sharp increase over six months from 1.3 in May, indicating a slowing market.
Condo sales in October were down 5% over last year, and new condo listings were up 41% over last year. The number of active condo listings was up 57% over last year. The MOI increased to 5.5. Much like the market for houses, this is a rapid increase from 1.6 in May, indicating a slowing market.
For detailed monthly statistics for October 2023 for the entire Toronto area market, including house, condo and regional breakdowns, see the full Move Smartly monthly report for Nov 2023.
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The Move Smartly monthly report is powered by Realosophy Realty, an innovative residential real estate brokerage in Toronto. A leader in real estate analytics, Realosophy educates consumers at Realosophy.com and MoveSmartly.com and helps clients make better decisions when buying and selling a home.
John Pasalis is President of Realosophy Realty. A specialist in real estate data analysis, John’s research focuses on unlocking micro trends in the Greater Toronto Area real estate market. His research has been utilized by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).