Latest market numbers show that Toronto's house and condo prices falling up to 20% from peaks earlier this year though staying slightly up year-over-year.
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Looking at our most recent statistics for the Toronto area market, we see a continuation of the downturn we saw last month.
House sales in June are down 42% over last year and down slightly when compared to last month.
The average price for a house in June was $1,373,325 down from the most recent peak of $1,679,429 in February, but up 5% over last year; the median house price in June was $1,200,000, down from $1,485,000 in February, but up 5% over last year.
New house listings were up 1% compared to last year, but well below previous years, while the number of houses available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, at the end of June was up 46% over last year.
Condo sales were down 40% in June over last year and below pre-Covid sales volumes for the month.
The average price for a condo in June fell to $766,839, down from $840,444 in March, the most recent peak. The average price is up 9% over last year. The median price for a condo in June was $705,000, up 10% over last year, but down from $777,000.
New condo listings were down 1% over last year, and ahead of typical new listing volume for the month. The number of active listings for condos was up 30% over last year.
House sales (low-rise detached, semi-detached, townhouse, etc.) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in June 2022 were down 42% over the same month last year and represent a 20-year low for the month of June.
New house listings in June were up 1% when compared to last year, but below typical new listing volumes for the month of June.
The number of houses available for sale (“active listings”) was up 46% when compared to the same month last year, but still 32% below pre-Covid levels in 2019.
The Months of Inventory ratio (MOI) looks at the number of homes available for sale in a given month divided by the number of homes that sold in that month. It answers the following question: If no more homes came on the market for sale, how long would it take for all the existing homes on the market to sell given the current level of demand?
The higher the MOI, the cooler the market is. A balanced market (a market where prices are neither rising nor falling) is one where MOI is between four to six months. The lower the MOI, the more rapidly we would expect prices to rise.
While the current level of MOI gives us clues into how competitive the market is on-the-ground today, the direction it is moving in also gives us some clues into where the market may be heading.
While below a very competitive 1 MOI a few months ago, inventory in the Toronto area has increased to 2.3 MOI in June. The fact that the MOI has been rising rapidly since March is a sign that the market is cooling down.
The share of houses selling for more than the owner’s asking price declined to 40% in June.
The average price for a house declined month-over-month to $1,373,325 in June 2022 and is well below the peak of $1,679,429 reached in February. Compared to last year, the average price in June is up 5%.
The median house price in June was $1,200,000, up 5% over last year, but below the peak of $1,485,000 reached in February.
The median is calculated by ordering all the sale prices in a given month and then selecting the price that is in the midpoint of that list such that half of all home sales were above that price and half are below that price. Economists often prefer the median price over the average because it is less sensitive to big increases in the sale of high-end or low-end homes in a given month which can skew the average price.
Condo (condominiums, including condo apartments, condo townhouses, etc.) sales in the Toronto area in June 2022 were down 40% over last year and well below pre-Covid sales volumes for the month of June.
New condo listings were down 1% in June over last year and ahead of historical listing volumes for the month of June.
The number of condos available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was up 30% over last year.
Condo inventory levels have been rising rapidly since March, reaching 3 months of inventory in June.
The share of condos selling for over the asking price declined to 36% in June.
The average price for a condo in June fell to $766,839, down from the peak of $840,444 in March. The average price is up 9% over last year. The median price for a condo in June was $705,000, up 10% over last year, but down from $777,000 from the March peak.
While average prices were up on a year-over-year (YOY) basis across all five regions in the GTA, sales were down significantly and inventory levels were well ahead of last year’s level, indicating some market slowing.
While condo sales were down across the GTA, average prices continue to be up over last year in all five regions. Current MOI levels are well above 1 across the GTA, signalling a slowing market.
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