While March 2022 housing market numbers were well above those of 2021 and 2020, there are some signs of cooling as average prices fall slightly from February.
As Featured in the monthly Move Smartly Report:
FREE PUBLIC WEBINAR: The Market Now with John Pasalis
Join John Pasalis, report author, leading market analyst and Move Smartly contributor, and President of Realosophy Realty, and in a free monthly webinar as he discusses key highlights from this report, with added timely observations about new emerging issues, and answers your questions. A must see for well-informed Toronto area real estate consumers.
While Toronto’s housing market is still in seller’s market territory, there are signs that the market is cooling down (see “The Numbers Behind Toronto's Cooling Housing Market” in our full market report).
The average price for a house in March was $1,596,091 down from $1,679,429 in February, but up 21% over last year; the median house price in March was $1,415,000, down $70,000 over last month but up 23% over last year.
House sales were down 35% on a year-over-year basis, but well above levels for March in 2019 and 2020.
New listings in March were down 16% over last year, but still very strong compared to previous years while the number of active houses for sale at the end of March was down 5% over last year.
The average price for a condominium (condo) in March reached $840,444, up 20% over last year; the median price for a condo in March was $777,000, up 20% over last year.
Condo sales were down 19% in March over last year, but well above the levels for the same month in 2019 and 2020.
New condo listings were unchanged over last year, but well ahead of the new listing volume in 2019 and 2020. The number of condos available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was down 5% over last year.
House sales (detached, semi-detached, townhouse, etc.) in the Toronto area in March 2022 were down 35% over the same month last year, but above levels for the same month in pre-Covid 2019 and 2020. This trend masks the fact that sales began to decline during the second half of March, a trend that has continued into the first two weeks of April (see ‘Data Dive’ section above).
New listings in March were down 16% over last year, but well above the volume seen in 2019 and 2020.
The number of houses available for sale (“active listings”) was down 5% when compared to the same month last year and 37% below the inventory levels seen in 2019.
The Months of Inventory ratio (MOI) looks at the number of homes available for sale in a given month divided by the number of homes that sold in that month. It answers the following question: If no more homes came on the market for sale, how long would it take for all the existing homes on the market to sell given the current level of demand?
The higher the MOI, the cooler the market is. A balanced market (a market where prices are neither rising nor falling) is one where MOI is between four to six months. The lower the MOI, the more rapidly we would expect prices to rise.
While the current level of MOI gives us clues into how competitive the market is on-the-ground today, the direction it is moving in also gives us some clues into where the market may be heading.
The MOI has been below a very competitive 1 MOI since last year, but has been on the rise since December and ended the month at 1 MOI.
The share of houses selling for more than the owner’s asking price climbed to an unbelievable 84% in March.
The average price for a house declined to $1,596,091 in March 2022, but is up 21% over last year.
The median house price in March was $1,415,000, up 23% over last year, but down $70,000 over last month.
The median is calculated by ordering all the sale prices in a given month and then selecting the price that is in the midpoint of that list such that half of all home sales were above that price and half are below that price. Economists often prefer the median price over the average because it is less sensitive to big increases in the sale of high-end or low-end homes in a given month which can skew the average price.
Condo (condominiums, including condo apartments, condo townhouses, etc.) sales in the Toronto area in March 2022 were down 19% over last year, but well ahead of volumes in 2019 and 2020.
New condo listings were unchanged in March over last year and well ahead of the listing volume in 2019 and 2020.
The number of condos available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was down 5% over last year.
The strong demand helped keep the MOI below 1 MOI for the month of March.
The competition for condos picked remained strong with the share of condos selling for over the asking price rising to 80% in March.
Average condo prices in March reached $840,444, up 20% over last year. The median price for a condo in March was $777,000, up 20% over last year.
While average prices were up on a year-over-year (YOY) basis across all five regions in the GTA, YOY sales were down and inventory levels were ahead of last year’s level, indicating some market slowing.
While condo sales were down across the GTA, average prices were up double digits in all five regions. Current MOI levels are below 1 across the GTA signalling a continuing strong seller’s market.
Browse All Real-Time Toronto Area Market Trends on Movesmartly.com:
Top Image Credit: Getty/iStock
The Move Smartly monthly report is powered Realosophy Realty Inc. Brokerage, an innovative residential real estate brokerage in Toronto. A leader in real estate analytics, Realosophy educates consumers at Realosophy.com and MoveSmartly.com and helps clients make better decisions when buying and selling a home.
Email report author John Pasalis, Realosophy President
April 21, 2022Market | Toronto and GTA | The Monthly Numbers | Report |