Most recent market numbers from November show that prices in the Toronto area market are plateauing - for now.
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The Market Now
Looking at the most recent statistics for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) market for the most recent month available, November 2022, we’re seeing that even as sales numbers remain at 20-year lows, home prices have stabilized since July in part because there are relatively few homes available for sale.
The average price for a house was $1,316,923 in November, down 22% from the most recent peak of $1,679,429 in February, and down 11% over the same month last year. The median house price in November was $1,150,000, down 24% from $1,485,000 in February, and down 12% over last year.
House sales in November were down a whopping 47% over last year while new house listings were down 13% compared to last year. The number of houses available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was up 107% over last year, when demand was notably high; excluding that year, the active listings number today is well below historical norms for the month of November.
The Months of Inventory (MOI) which is a measure of inventory relative to the number of sales each month (see Monthly Statistics section below for more information on this measure) was unchanged at 2.3 MOI in November, indicating tight supply conditions.
The average price for a condo fell to $728,984 in November, down 13% from the most recent peak of $840,444 in March, and down 1% over last year. The median price for a condo in November was $660,000, down from $777,000 in March and down 1% over last year.
Condo sales in November were down 54% over last year and below pre-COVID sales volumes for the month in 2019. New condo listings were down 11% over last year while the number of active condo listings was up 72% over last year. The MOI decreased slightly to 3.2 MOI in November, indicating that supply is slightly less constrained for condos than for houses.
House sales (low-rise detached, semi-detached, townhouse, etc.) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in November 2022 were down 47% over the same month last year and remain well below historical levels for the month.
New house listings in November were down 13% over last year.
The number of houses available for sale (“active listings”) was up 107% when compared to the same month last year, but still well below pre-COVID levels for the month of November. It’s worth noting that the low inventory levels in the second half of 2021 were due to a surge in demand as the market accelerated towards the peak in February 2022.
The Months of Inventory ratio (MOI) looks at the number of homes available for sale in a given month divided by the number of homes that sold in that month. It answers the following question: If no more homes came on the market for sale, how long would it take for all the existing homes on the market to sell given the current level of demand?
The higher the MOI, the cooler the market is. A balanced market (a market where prices are neither rising nor falling) is one where MOI is between four to six months. The lower the MOI, the more rapidly we would expect prices to rise.
While the current level of MOI gives us clues into how competitive the market is on-the-ground today, the direction it is moving in also gives us some clues into where the market may be heading.
The MOI for houses remained unchanged at 2.3 MOI in November.
The share of houses selling for more than the owner’s asking price dipped slightly to 329% in November.
The average price for a house in November was $1,316,923 in November 2022, well below the peak of $1,679,429 reached in February and down11% when compared to the same month last year.
The median house price in November was $1,150,000, down12% over last year, and below the peak of $1,485,000 reached in February.
The median is calculated by ordering all the sale prices in a given month and then selecting the price that is in the midpoint of that list such that half of all home sales were above that price and half are below that price. Economists often prefer the median price over the average because it is less sensitive to big increases in the sale of high-end or low-end homes in a given month which can skew the average price.
Condo (condominiums, including condo apartments, condo townhouses, etc.) sales in the Toronto area in November 2022 were down 54% over last year and well below pre-COVID sales volumes for the month of November.
New condo listings were down 11% in November over last year and in line with historical listing volumes for the month of November.
The number of condos available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was up 72% over last year.
Condo inventory levels decreased slightly to 3.2 MOI in November.
The share of condos selling for over the asking price increased slightly to 20% in November.
The average price for a condo in November was $728,984, down from the peak of $840,444 in March, and down 1% over last year. The median price for a condo in November was $660,000, down 1% over last year, and down from the March peak of $777,000.
Average prices were down over last year across all five regions with Halton and Toronto seeing the biggest decline in prices. Sales were down significantly across all regions and inventory levels were well ahead of last year’s level.
Average condo prices were down over last year in Durham, Peel and Toronto. Sales were down significantly across all regions and inventory levels were well ahead of last year’s level.
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Email report author John Pasalis, Realosophy President
December 13, 2022Market | Toronto and GTA | The Monthly Numbers | Report |