Average house prices jump up after months of holding steady as new listings remain historically low and average condo prices rise slightly.
Watch the video of this market update on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel.
FREE PUBLIC WEBINAR: The Market Now with John Pasalis
Join John Pasalis, report author, leading market analyst and Move Smartly contributor, and President of Realosophy Realty, in a free monthly webinar as he discusses key highlights from this report, with added timely observations about new emerging issues, and answers your questions. A must see for well-informed Toronto area real estate consumers.
The Market Now
The most recent Toronto area real estate market statistics (for last month, September 2021) have revealed an end to the average price plateau of $1.3M for (low-rise) house prices, which we’ve been seeing for most of this year, with prices now climbing to $1,407,190. This represents an increase of 7% over the previous month and 26% year-over-year.
While house sales were down 28% on a year-over-year basis, sales were well above pre-COVID levels for September sales in 2018 and 2019. Conversely, new listings in September picked up over the previous month’s levels, but were down 36% over last year and well below levels in 2018 and 2019.
At the end of September, the Toronto area had only 4,607 houses available for sale, a 53% decline from inventory levels last year and well below the roughly 11,000 active house listings that are more typical for the month of September.
The average Condominium (condo) price in September was $726,809 while the median was $657,500, both up 13% over last year. This marks a more modest increase from the $700K average price plateau we’ve been seeing for most of this year.
Condominium (condo) sales in September were up 6% over last year and above the pre-COVID levels for the same month in 2018 and 2019.
New condo listings were down by 32% in September 2021 over last year, but well above the volumes in 2018 and 2019. The number of condos available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was down 47% over last year.
House sales (detached, semi-detached, townhouse, etc.) in the Toronto area in September 2021 were down 28% over the same month last year.
Sales will likely continue to be negative on a year-over-year basis until at least the first quarter of 2022 since we’ll be comparing against a period that saw a sudden shock in demand for houses following the initial Covid-19 lockdowns. But it’s worth noting that sales in September were above levels for the same month in pre-Covid 2018 and 2019.
New listings in September were down 36% over last year. But unlike sales volumes which were strong compared to pre-Covid levels, new listings in September were well below the listings volumes seen in 2018 and 2019 (for more detail on this, see the ‘Data Dive’ section above in this report).
The number of houses available for sale (“active listings”) was down 53% when compared to the same month last year and 62% below the inventory levels seen in pre-Covid 2019.
The Months of Inventory ratio (MOI) looks at the number of homes available for sale in a given month divided by the number of homes that sold in that month. It answers the following question: If no more homes came on the market for sale, how long would it take for all the existing homes on the market to sell given the current level of demand?
The higher the MOI, the cooler the market is. A balanced market (a market where prices are neither rising nor falling) is one where MOI is between four to six months. The lower the MOI, the more rapidly we would expect prices to rise.
This September, the market remained very competitive with an MOI of under 1.
While the current level of MOI gives us clues into how competitive the market is on-the-ground today, the direction it is moving in also gives us some clues into where the market may be heading. The MOI has remained relatively stable at or below a very competitive 1 MOI for the past twelve months.
The share of houses selling for more than the owner’s asking price climbed from 68% in August to 74% in September.
Average house prices had plateaued in 2021 remaining relatively constant in the $1.3M range since the start of the year, but that trend ended this September when average prices surged to $1,407,190 up $87,976 or 7% in a single month.
Year-over-year, the average house price in September was up 26% while the median price climbed to $1,225,000, up 29% over last year.
Condo (condominiums, including condo apartments, condo townhouses, etc.) sales in the Toronto area in September were up by 6% over last year and up 22% compared to pre-Covid 2019.
New condo listings were down by 32% in September 2021 over last year, but well above the volumes in 2018 and 2019.
The number of condos available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was down 47% over last year, a period that saw a surge in condo listings due to declining prices, falling rents and rising vacancy rates.
The relatively strong demand of new listings (supply) helped keep the MOI at 1.4 for the month of September, up from 0.8 MOI in March.
The competition for condos picked up very slightly with the share of condos selling for over the asking price rising from 45% in August to 49% in September.
Average condo prices plateaued at approximately $700K for most of 2021 and in September reached $726,809, up 13% over last year. The median price for a condo in September was $657,500 up 13% over last year.
Sales across all five regions in the GTA were down in September while average prices were up on a year-over-year basis. The decline in new listings helped keep the market competitive with MOI at or below 1 across the entire GTA, indicating a strong seller’s market.
Toronto, York and Peel saw condo sales up on a year-over-year basis while the other regions saw a decline in sales. Average prices were up double digits across the suburban regions and up by 9% in the City of Toronto. Also indicative of strong market conditions, current MOI levels are at or below last year’s levels for all five regions.
Browse All Real-Time Regional Market Trends on Movesmartly.com:
Top Image Credit: Getty/iStock
The Move Smartly monthly report is powered Realosophy Realty Inc. Brokerage, an innovative residential real estate brokerage in Toronto. A leader in real estate analytics, Realosophy educates consumers at Realosophy.com and MoveSmartly.com and helps clients make better decisions when buying and selling a home.